Skip to main content
Customer Churn Prediction
Machine Learning

Customer Churn Prediction — Case Study

AUC: 0.8438
PythonScikit-learnXGBoostPandasMatplotlibSeaborn

The Challenge

A telecom company was losing customers without understanding why. Goal was identifying customers likely to leave before they did — allowing retention team to intervene with targeted offers.

💡 The Approach

Complete ML pipeline training 4 models simultaneously. Rather than picking one model upfront, trained all 4 and let metrics decide which performs best on the specific dataset.

🔄 Step-by-Step Process

01

Loaded 7,043 telecom customer records with 20+ features including usage and contract type

02

Cleaned data, handled missing TotalCharges values, encoded categorical variables

03

Applied StandardScaler normalization for scale-sensitive models

04

Trained 4 models: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, Gradient Boosting

05

Evaluated all models with AUC-ROC, precision, recall, F1-score comparison charts

06

Built feature importance visualization revealing top churn drivers for business insights

Final Result

Gradient Boosting achieved best AUC of 0.8438. Feature importance revealed contract type, tenure, and monthly charges as strongest churn predictors. Real-time single-customer churn probability scoring.

📚 Key Lesson

Always train multiple models and compare. Random Forest may outperform XGBoost on some datasets. The extra 10 minutes of training all models is always worth the insight.