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Customer Churn Prediction
Machine Learning

Customer Churn Prediction — Case Study

AUC: 0.8438
PythonScikit-learnXGBoostPandasMatplotlibSeaborn

⚠ The Challenge

A telecom company was losing customers without understanding why. Goal was identifying customers likely to leave before they did — allowing retention team to intervene with targeted offers.

💡 The Approach

Complete ML pipeline training 4 models simultaneously. Rather than picking one model upfront, trained all 4 and let metrics decide which performs best on the specific dataset.

🔄 Step-by-Step Process

01

Loaded 7,043 telecom customer records with 20+ features including usage and contract type

02

Cleaned data, handled missing TotalCharges values, encoded categorical variables

03

Applied StandardScaler normalization for scale-sensitive models

04

Trained 4 models: Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, Gradient Boosting

05

Evaluated all models with AUC-ROC, precision, recall, F1-score comparison charts

06

Built feature importance visualization revealing top churn drivers for business insights

✓ Final Result

Gradient Boosting achieved best AUC of 0.8438. Feature importance revealed contract type, tenure, and monthly charges as strongest churn predictors. Real-time single-customer churn probability scoring.

📚 Key Lesson

Always train multiple models and compare. Random Forest may outperform XGBoost on some datasets. The extra 10 minutes of training all models is always worth the insight.